Archive for March, 2009

Record drop in home prices keeps U.S. consumers glum (Reuters)

Tuesday, March 31st, 2009 | Finance News

NEW YORK (Reuters) –
U.S. home prices plunged at a record pace in January while consumer confidence held just above record lows in March, according to data on Tuesday that showed no signs of a bottom for the lengthy recession.

Home prices nationwide have lost around 30 percent of their value from their peak in 2006, according to the S&P/Case Shiller index, with regional variations making for much steeper declines in places like Florida and Nevada. In the year to January alone, prices plunged a record 19 percent.

A depressed housing sector, coupled with dire employment prospects, kept consumer sentiment close to rock bottom. The Conference Board's index of confidence barely inched up from February's all-time low, rising to 26.0.

"Job conditions are terrible," said Brian Bethune, U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Waltham, Mass. "There is a general sense of uncertainty because people are peppered with bad news around the world."

Recent economic reports had shown hints of a pickup in consumer spending and a rebound in durable goods orders. But the data on Tuesday was less reassuring.

The Chicago purchasing managers index, a measure of business activity in the Midwest, fell to 31.4 this month from 34.2 in February, the most severe shrinkage since 1980.

Nor were details of the confidence survey reassuring for those hoping that a turnaround in housing will lead the economy out of its morass.

Only 2 percent of Americans said they intended to buy a home in the next six months, the weakest reading since 1982. Car-buying intentions also fell sharply.

"The mood is still quite gloomy, people are reticent about spending," said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities.

GLOBAL IMPACT

The troubles were hardly confined to U.S. borders. The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development said member economies would contract 4.3 percent this year. That was sharply down from the last forecast of -0.4 percent, made in November.

"The world economy is in the midst of its deepest and most synchronized recession in our lifetime caused by a global financial crisis and deepened by a collapse in world trade," the OECD said in its interim economic outlook.

Germany suffered its biggest jump in unemployment in March since the outset of the global economic crisis, with the jobless total rising for a fifth straight month.

Canada, meanwhile, was on track to post one of its worst-ever economic quarters, likely pushing the central bank to go beyond interest rate cuts in its efforts to combat the recession.

(Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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World Bank offers trade boost ahead of G20 (Reuters)

Tuesday, March 31st, 2009 | Finance News

LONDON (Reuters) –
The World Bank announced a $50 billion program on Tuesday to counter a decline in global trade and Britain called on G20 leaders to supply "the oxygen of confidence" to drag the world economy out of recession.

Leaders of the world's largest and developing economies meet in London on Wednesday and Thursday to try to chart a way out of the worst global crisis since the 1930s, caused by a freeze in credit after bank loans went bad.

The scale of the problem was underlined by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which said the economies of its 30 members would shrink by 4.3 percent in 2009, shedding 25 million jobs this year and next.

Japan, the world's second largest economy, announced plans for its third stimulus package and Japanese media predicted it would aim to create 60 trillion yen ($612 billion) worth of demand and 2 million jobs.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the summit host, said leaders should aim to save or create 20 million jobs and must act together to increase the potential impact of their actions.

"Leaders meeting in London must supply the oxygen of confidence to today's global economy and give people in all of our countries renewed hope for the future," he said.

The run-up to the summit has been marked by divisions between the United States and continental Europe over its focus, and skeptics have questioned how much it can achieve.

The Americans want more spending, while the Europeans are focused more on regulation, arguing stimulus measures already taken need to be given time to work.

RECOVERY NEXT YEAR

The OECD forecast a recovery in 2010, echoing a line in a draft G20 communique obtained by Reuters.

The draft shows leaders want to agree to avoid currency moves and protectionist measures that would damage other economies. It also repeats existing promises to get economies back on track, but does not contain any specific details.

The G20 is expected to announce at least a doubling of resources for the International Monetary Fund from the current $250 billion -- although Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said its funding should be tripled if necessary, stressing the threat to emerging economies.

"The first major risk comes from a potential economic collapse of emerging markets," he said. "The second major risk to global recovery is the process of deleveraging."

Speaking at a Thomson Reuters event, World Bank President Robert Zoellick announced measures to reverse a sharp drop in trade flows after credit dried up.

Zoellick said the program would include funding from governments, starting with contributions from Britain and the Netherlands, regional development banks and private-sector banks such as Standard Chartered, Standard Bank and Rabobank.

CONFIDENCE BOOST

The White House said it expected G20 leaders to agree on a package of financial reforms that could include expanded regulation of hedge funds and steps aimed at clamping down further on tax havens.

That chimed with a report released by a G20 working group on restructuring the financial services industry. It said hedge funds should be more closely regulated and credit ratings agencies subject to tighter supervision.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the summit should pledge an overhaul of financial institutions, map out an exit from governments' spending sprees and commit to a climate deal.

Brown, who has spearheaded efforts to get agreement on concrete measures at the G20, said the summit must restore people's faith in the economy.

The son of a Scottish church minister, he told faith leaders and charity workers in a speech in London's St Paul's Cathedral that markets must be guided by everyday values cherished by all.

"Our task today is to bring the imperatives served by our financial markets into proper alignment with the values held by families and business people across our country - hard work, taking responsibility, being honest, being fair," Brown said.

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U.S. consumer confidence barely above record low (Reuters)

Tuesday, March 31st, 2009 | Finance News

NEW YORK (Reuters) –
U.S. consumer confidence rose slightly in March but remained near record lows as the economy remained weak and job prospects grew increasingly uncertain.

The Conference Board's sentiment index inched up to 26.0 this month from an upwardly revised 25.3 in February. The original February reading of 25 represented an all-time low for the index, which dates back to 1967.

"Apprehension about the outlook for the economy, the labor market and earnings continues to weigh heavily on consumers' attitudes," said Lynn Franco, director of the industry group's Consumer Research Center. "More job losses are on the horizon."

The survey's expectations index improved modestly, but perceptions about current conditions worsened from already extremely low levels.

Respondents also showed a strong reluctance to spend money in an uncertain economic environment. Buying intentions for new cars fell to 3.9 percent from 4.7 percent, while the proportion of people saying they were going to purchase a home over the next six months fell to 2.0 percent from 2.3 percent.

(Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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