Japanese economy grew at 3.5 percent pace in 1Q

Wednesday, May 15th, 2013 | Finance News

TOKYO (AP) — Japan's economy saw a stronger than expected recovery last quarter, growing at a 3.5 percent annual pace as the government stepped up public works spending and eased credit to encourage investment.

The data for January to March showed the world's third-largest economy grew 0.9 percent on a quarterly basis, compared with revised GDP data showing 0.3 percent growth in the final quarter of 2012, as Japan inched its way out of recession. The figures were reported by the Cabinet Office on Thursday.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office in late December vowing to help the economy recover from two decades of malaise by breaking out of chronic deflation. His policies have helped push share prices to their highest levels in over five years, fueled by strong liquidity and expectations of improved profitability for listed companies.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index rose to 15,139.56 early Thursday before falling back slightly on profit taking. It has gained about 75 percent since November in a rally linked to high hopes for Abe's policies, which have been dubbed "Abenomics."

A sharp decline in the value of the Japanese yen, brought on both by monetary easing and by expectations of further easing, has helped some exporters and provided a windfall in yen terms for companies repatriating overseas earnings. But it is also raising costs for many companies that depend heavily on imports of natural gas and other commodities.

Apart from share prices, Japan's manufacturing and employment showed slight improvements in March, buttressing hopes that the economy may be headed for a moderate recovery.

The central bank, which is committed to achieving 2 percent inflation within two years, says it expects a moderate recovery by midyear but has warned that uncertainties in the domestic and global economies could foil those hopes.

Critics of the Abenomics strategy question whether the extra funding pumped into the economy will foster sustainable growth or just push up prices for shares and other assets.

Key to the success of the policies will be increased spending by households and corporations, partly due to expectations that prices will rise. So far, increases in spending have been attributed mainly to luxury purchases by share investors splashing out after seeing gains in their portfolios. The Nikkei 225 stock benchmark has risen nearly 28 percent in the past three months.

Much of the growth in the first quarter of the year came from public demand, as in government spending on reconstruction from Japan's March 2011 tsunami disaster and other public works. Private demand has been fueled by a recovery in housing investment, which has picked up sharply as purchasers rush to beat expected increases in sales taxes in the coming two years.

The tax increase, while needed to help reduce Japan's massive public debt, will amount to a "major fiscal tightening," Capital Economics economist Julian Jessop said in a commentary before the GDP data was released.

"Overall, 'Abenomics' surely represents the right mix of policies to tackle Japan's problems," he said, noting that the government faces a challenge in carrying out fiscal and structural reforms — such as changes in labor, education and tax policies and administrative deregulation — to help improve Japan's long-term competitiveness and adapt to its aging and shrinking population. In the near term, if companies do not boost wages to help improve household purchasing power, inflationary policies could just discourage consumer spending, he and other economists warn.

"On these points at least, the jury is still out," he said.

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