‘Boom Town Baby’: African stock markets see gains

Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013 | Finance News

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The barrage of hourly tweets sent out by Aly-Khan Satchu — East Africa's version of CNBC's Mad Money host Jim Cramer — cheers on what Satchu says is a growing sentiment among investors: If you're not investing in Africa, you should be. Or as Satchu loudly proclaims on his Twitter feed or newspaper column: "ITS BOOM TOWN BABY."

Several African stock markets are seeing huge returns this year. Though small, Ghana's stock market is up more than 50 percent so far in 2013, one of the world's top performers. Kenya — up 35 percent — has been touching record highs all year. Nigeria is also up 35 percent on the year.

Global investors used to put their money into Africa in the continent's north — the Arab rim — and the south — South Africa, Satchu said. But now the money is going to the middle. When Rwanda offered $400 million in 10-year dollar-denominated bonds last month, demand was more than eight times the supply.

"The American writer Edwin Lefevre wrote in the novel 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator' that one of the rules is that the tape is your telescope. You have to look at the returns if you're going to be a serious investor. And right now Africa is flashing across everyone's tape," said Satchu.

"The golden flood of free money that Ben Bernake has launched on the world, usually it would stop short of Africa," said Satchu, who once ran the global trading desks in emerging markets for Credit Suisse First Boston and now runs his own financial management business in Nairobi.

With U.S. treasuries now paying so little, investors are putting money in Africa, he said.

At the World Economic Forum on Africa, held in Cape Town, South Africa earlier this month, forum managing director Borge Brende noted that the continent's people are the youngest in the world, with 70 percent of the population under the age of 30.

"The perspective on Africa has changed dramatically the last years from an aid perspective into a perspective of economic growth, opportunities and also investments," Brende said.

Uhuru Kenyatta, the newly elected president of Kenya, told the Cape Town forum that Africa over the last 50 years spent its energies on emerging from the colonial period, when coup after coup weighed down advancement. Now African neighbors are learning how to work with one another to advance each other's business development, he said.

Rwandan President Paul Kagame, writing in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday following his country's wildly popular bond offering, noted that nine out of the world's 15 fast growing economies are in Africa. Foreign direct investment was $9 billion in 2000; last year it exceeded $80 billion, he wrote.

Despite the increased investment and rising stock indexes, investors must still wade into Africa carefully. The continent still needs to improve its infrastructure, improve gender equality and advance the population's skills and education, Brende said.

Corruption plagues businesses in Africa throughout their life cycle. Construction can be slow. Quality supply chains are difficult to find, a fact that keeps major corporations like McDonald's in only small corners of the continent. The corporate governance of small-cap stocks can be an issue, Satchu said, making large-cap stocks headquartered in the U.S. or Europe more attractive.

"You're leveraging Africa opportunity and parent-company corporate governance," Satchu said. "Investors are going for these big cap stocks where they feel the corporate governance is the highest standard."

Brende noted that the continent — a collection of 54 countries — still has 17 nations defined as fragile states. Africa, Satchu said, is not the homogeneous investment environment that the United States or India is.

"Would I throw my life savings into the DRC?" he said, referring to the violent but mineral-rich nation of Congo. "You must be joking. But would I make a big bet on some real estate here (in Kenya) where the title is clear? Yes."

A report from the International Monetary Fund released this month titled "Sub-Saharan Africa: Building Momentum in a Multi-Speed World" predicted that growth in sub-Saharan Africa will accelerate moderately in 2013-14 and that inflation will continue to edge downward. Economic stagnation in the euro zone and the potential of a drop-off in outside investment could slow that growth, it said.

"Sub-Saharan Africa has performed strongly and should continue to do so," it said. "Output grew, on average, at a rate of 5.1 percent in 2012 and is projected to accelerate to 5.4 percent in 2013 and 5.7 percent in 2014."

Satchu said big pension funds and university endowment funds are looking to invest in Africa. The issue for the continent, he said, is not going to be too little capital but too much, and how it absorbs it. Kagame wrote in the Journal that a view exists that development in Africa is a marathon, not a sprint. He said Rwanda does not agree.

"In our pursuit of progress, we have of course looked to East Asia's so-called 'tiger' economies for inspiration. But Africa's experience is unique, and we must now define our own destiny," Kagame wrote. "So while being described as an 'African tiger' is a welcome recognition of how far Rwanda has come, perhaps it isn't quite right. After all, our continent has its own big cat. Step forward the new lions of Africa."

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House takes up GOP bill to speed pipeline approval

Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013 | Finance News

WASHINGTON (AP) — The House has taken up a Republican-sponsored bill that would speed approval of the proposed Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada to Texas.

Supporters say the bill, sponsored by Rep. Lee Terry of Nebraska, is needed to ensure the long-delayed pipeline is built. The project, which first was proposed in 2008, would carry oil extracted from tar sands in western Canada to refineries along the Texas Gulf Coast.

Terry called the project "the most studied pipeline in the history of mankind."

The White House says President Barack Obama opposes the bill because it would "circumvent longstanding and proven processes" by removing a requirement for a presidential permit. The legislation also says no new environmental studies are needed.

Rep. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., called the bill a "reckless attempt to avoid environmental review."

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Target’s 1Q profit drops 29 pct on weak sales

Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013 | Finance News

NEW YORK (AP) — Target Corp. reported a 29 percent drop in first-quarter profit as unusually cool spring weather and financial pressures chilled customers' appetite for spending.

The company, based in Minneapolis, also on Wednesday cut its annual profit outlook, sending its stock down.

Target is the latest in a string of companies including rival Wal-Mart Stores Inc. that say bad weather and financial pressures like the higher payroll tax have squeezed business in the first couple months of the year.

While chilly weather was a big factor in depressing sales of spring clothing and other seasonal goods, Target said that a yo-yo economic recovery has continued to make shoppers stick to shopping lists and plan their spending.

"We remain cautiously optimistic about both the macroeconomic environment and consumer behavior," Gregg Steinhafel, chairman, president and CEO, told investors in a call after the earnings report. "Both of these business drivers continue to reflect slow, uneven growth and ongoing cross-current of positive and negative indicators, just as they have for the past few years."

In fact, while the housing market is showing signs of recovery and claims for unemployment insurance have been declining, shoppers, particularly younger customers, are still facing a weak job market, Steinhafel said.

A big hurdle for many low-price retailers has been tax changes. An increase in the payroll tax of two percentage points, which took effect Jan. 1, means that take-home pay for a household earning $50,000 a year has been sliced by $1,000.

Target said Wednesday that three-quarters of its customers surveyed were aware of this year's payroll tax increase. Among those, a majority have noticed the impact of the tax increase on their paychecks and indicate it's affecting their spending.

Still, Target, whose sales growth has been uneven since the recession, remains confident in its strategies to attract shoppers.

Target has reached out to customers with two big growth initiatives. It has been offering a larger selection of food and also a program, started in 2010, that gives shoppers a 5 percent discount when they pay with Target-branded credit and debit cards.

At the same time, Target continues to team up with new designers for limited-time partnerships. Earlier this month, Target announced its latest designer collaboration, with Phillip Lim. The collection is due out in September.

Last year, Target expanded into urban markets using smaller versions of its big-box stores in Seattle, Los Angeles and Chicago.

Target also started to expand into Canada earlier this year, its first foray outside the U.S. The company is opening the stores in waves that should add up to about 125 stores at locations once owned by Canadian retailer Zellers by the end of the year. During the first quarter, it opened 24 stores in Canada, and plans to open 20 more later in the second quarter.

Target said it earned $498 million, or 77 cents per share, for the three months ended May 4. That compares with $697 million, or $1.04 per share, a year earlier.

Excluding items related to its Canadian expansion and retirement of certain debt, the company earned $1.05 per share.

Sales rose 1 percent to $16.71 billion.

Analysts had expected earnings of 95 cents per share on revenue of $16.82 billion.

Revenue at stores open at least a year slipped 0.6 percent as the number of transactions fell 1.9 percent. That's considered an important measure of retail performance because it strips out the effect of stores that open or close during the year.

Target says that measure should improve to anywhere from a 2 percent to 3 percent gain in the current quarter. And while traffic should improve, it will continue to be challenging, Target told investors.

Target expects that adjusted earnings per share will be in a range between $1.09 and $1.19 for the current quarter.

For the full year, the company now expects $4.70 per share to $4.90 per share. That's down from its original guidance of $4.85 per share to $5.05 per share.

Analysts had forecast $1.11 per share for the second quarter and $4.63 per share for the year.

The results come a week after Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, reported that its first-quarter profit edged up just slightly, and the company struggled with a sales malaise in its namesake business.

Revenue at stores open at least year at its namesake U.S. business dropped 1.4 percent, the first decline since the second quarter of 2011.

Wal-Mart also offered a quarterly profit outlook that came below Wall Street's projections. Wal-Mart blamed a litany of factors affecting its budget-conscious customers, including a payroll tax increase, delayed tax refunds, job worries and bad weather. The company did say that sales this month have been rebounding.

Target's stock dropped nearly 4 percent, or $2.69, to $68.56 Wednesday.

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