Stocks end mixed after mixed economic reports (AP)

Friday, March 12th, 2010 | Finance News

NEW YORK – Mixed economic reports held the stock market to only modest moves Friday but gains for the week were strong.

Uneven figures on retail sales and consumer confidence gave investors little new insight into the economy.

The reports weren't enough to propel the market higher a day after the Standard & Poor's 500 index closed at its highest level in 17 months. That index slipped Friday, but the Dow Jones industrial average tacked on nearly 13 points.

Major stock indicators climbed for the week after investors grew more upbeat about the health of banks. Shares of Citigroup Inc. rose 13.4 percent for the week.

Stocks had been modestly higher at the start of trading Friday after a surprising increase in February retail sales. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.3 percent last month. Analysts had expected a drop.

A weaker report on consumer sentiment disappointed traders. The preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March fell to 72.5 from 73.6 in late February.

Investors also were displeased with the Commerce Department's report that inventories were unchanged. Economists had forecast an increase. Analysts are hoping that businesses will restock store shelves on a consistent basis, which would be a positive signal for the economy.

The reports come as investors look for more signs about the economy's direction. The market bounced higher in the prior week after the Labor Department said employers cut fewer jobs in February than economists had expected. But trading has been more subdued since.

Neil Menard, principal at Steben & Co. in Rockville, Md., said the market could continue to make incremental gains until investors have a better sense about the job market. He sees little confidence behind stocks' advance the past two weeks.

"There is a lack of conviction in the markets," he said. "Everyone is kind of in wait-and-see mode."

The Dow rose 12.85, or 0.1 percent, to 10,624.69. The broader S&P 500 index slipped 0.25, or less than 0.1 percent, to 1,149.99. The Nasdaq composite index fell 0.80, or less than 0.1 percent, to 2,367.66. It stands at an 18-month high.

For the week, the Dow rose 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 index rose 1 percent and the technology-dominated Nasdaq climbed 1.8 percent.

Bond prices were mixed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.70 percent from 3.73 percent late Thursday.

Crude oil fell 87 cents to settle at $81.24 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The dollar mostly fell against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

Stocks were mixed Monday after insurer American International Group Inc. sold one of its big foreign divisions to MetLife Inc. for $15.5 billion. The market rose Tuesday and Wednesday and posted bigger gains Thursday after Citigroup's CEO said the bank was moving toward "sustained profitability." Citigroup was the hardest hit bank during the financial crisis.

The coming week could provide important signals about the economy. The Federal Reserve's interest rate committee meets Tuesday. Although policymakers are almost certain to leave their target interest rate at a record low of essentially zero, traders will be looking at the policy statement that follows the meeting. Even the slightest shift in the Fed's language on how long interest rates will remain unchanged or on its assessment of the economy likely would move the market. Reports are also due on inflation and regional manufacturing.

Christian Hviid, chief market strategist at Genworth Financial Asset Management in Encino, Calif., said the market's slow ascent during the week was good but that stocks are still up too much in the past month.

"It's better that we move slowly upward than violently up and then see a lot of volatility," he said.

The S&P 500 index is up 8.8 percent from its recent low on Feb. 8. A gain of that size might typically come in a year.

Hviid said the trading volume and activity that comes with next week's expiration of options contracts could shake up the market.

Advancing stocks narrowly outpaced those that fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 4.9 billion shares compared with 4.3 billion Thursday.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 0.63, or 0.1 percent, to 676.59.

Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.2 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 0.3 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell less than 0.1 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 0.8 percent.

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Augstums reported from Charlotte, N.C.

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The Dow Jones industrial average closed the week up 58.49 points, or 0.6 percent, at 10,624.69. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 11.29, or 1 percent, to 1,149.99. The Nasdaq composite index rose 41.31, or 1.8 percent, to 2,367.66.

The Russell 2000 index, which tracks the performance of small company stocks, rose 10.57, or 1.6 percent, for the week to 676.59.

The Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index — which measures nearly all U.S.-based companies — ended at 11,856.51, up 129.69, or 1.1 percent.

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Yellen at Fed would likely favor low-rate policy (AP)

Friday, March 12th, 2010 | Finance News

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama's likely choice of Janet Yellen to become vice chairman of the Federal Reserve would favor a policy that stresses low interest rates to ease unemployment over higher rates to curb inflation.

Obama is also considering filling two other Fed vacancies with officials who would boost its ranks of Ph.D. economists and deepen its expertise over financial regulation.

Altogether, the choices would allow Obama to put a bigger stamp on the central bank.

If nominated by Obama and confirmed by the Senate, the three would serve at the Fed during a delicate time: Making sure the recovery from the worst and longest recession since the 1930s becomes firmly rooted.

High unemployment, rising home foreclosures and hard-to-get credit pose a political headache for Obama and his Democratic Party as they face congressional elections this year.

Yellen, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, is a leading contender to take over as vice chairman of the Fed, Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary, said Friday.

Yellen, who was a top adviser to President Bill Clinton, is considered a dove on monetary policy. That means she would be expected to be concerned more about high unemployment than about rising inflation.

As vice chairman, Yellen would become the second-highest ranking Fed official. Her duties would include helping build support for policy positions staked out by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has begun a second term.

Ken Thomas, a lecturer in finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, said he thought Yellen, like Bernanke, would be inclined to keep rates at record lows to foster the recovery.

"She'll be more concerned about Main Street and unemployment than about Wall Street and inflation," Thomas said.

Yellen would succeed Donald Kohn, who plans to step down at the end of June. The White House is working for a smooth handoff, with Yellen ready to take office once Kohn leaves.

She has a long history with the Fed. Yellen has been president of the San Francisco Fed since 2004. She was a member of the Fed's Board of Governors from 1994 to 1997.

Yellen, who has written extensively on the causes and consequences of unemployment, has a tendency to address concerns of ordinary Americans.

"The fact that the economy is growing again doesn't mean we're where we ought to be," she said in a Feb. 22 speech. "The unemployment rate is unacceptably high, creating real hardship for millions of Americans."

Obama is considering filling two other vacancies on the seven-member Fed board with Sarah Raskin, a Harvard-educated lawyer who is the Maryland commissioner of financial regulation, and Peter Diamond, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the official said. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the president had yet to make the announcement.

"I would say Sarah Raskin and Peter Diamond are also under strong consideration for additional vacancies," Gibbs said. He added that other names are in the mix, too. He didn't say when Obama would announce his selections.

Yellen and Diamond, who is an authority on Social Security, pensions and taxation, are Ph.D. economists. With Kohn's departure, the Fed would have just one professional economist — Bernanke. Of its other current members, Daniel Tarullo was a Georgetown law professor, Kevin Warsh brought Wall Street experience and Elizabeth Duke was a banker.

Raskin, who served as counsel to the Senate Banking Committee, would expand the Fed's expertise over financial regulation. That would include consumer issues, which are important to Obama and Congress as they seek to revamp the nation's financial regulations.

The Fed wields power over the economy, employment and inflation through its interest-rate decisions. It also is the country's lender of last resort when banks can't get their money elsewhere — a tool that the Fed exercised fully at the height of the financial crisis. It also oversees banks.

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Retail sales show surprising gain in February (AP)

Friday, March 12th, 2010 | Finance News

WASHINGTON – Retail sales posted a surprising increase in February as consumers refused to let snowstorms stop them from stepping up purchases for everything from clothes to appliances. The improvement provided hope that the recovery from the Great Recession is gaining momentum.

Some economists cautioned that spending increases will remain modest as long as wages stay flat and job creation weak. But others said the fourth gain in retail sales in five months meant consumers are starting to spend with more confidence.

"This is more than a one-month wonder," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh. "This is telling us that consumers, who had been tightening their belts throughout the recession, have now loosened them a notch."

For February, sales rose 0.3 percent, the Commerce Department said Friday. That surpassed expectations of a 0.2 percent decline.

The overall gain was held back by a 2 percent decline in auto sales, partly reflecting the recall problems at Toyota. Weakness in autos also caused a downward revision in January retail sales. They were reduced to an increase of just 0.1 percent, down from the 0.5 percent originally reported.

But outside of autos, sales rose a strong 0.8 percent in February. That was far better than the 0.1 percent rise economists had expected. And for January, excluding autos, sales gained 0.5 percent, just slightly below the 0.6 percent initial estimate.

Some analysts expressed concern about whether the spending gains can be sustained, given that unemployment remains high — 9.7 percent in February — and consumer confidence shaky. A separate report Friday showed that consumer confidence dipped to 72.5 in early March, down slightly from a February reading of 73.5, according to a Reuters-University of Michigan survey.

"Weak jobs growth, low wages growth and tight credit mean that any further acceleration in consumption growth is unlikely," Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note.

Prospects would improve if businesses, which have shed 8.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, start rehiring laid-off workers. That would give households the incomes they need to support spending growth.

Economists said spending in both January and February likely gained support from higher tax refunds and tax credits paid by the government during the current tax filing season. Those increases reflect some of the tax relief included in the $787 billion economic stimulus package Congress passed last year.

Some analysts said the February retail sales report made them more confident that consumer spending — which accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity — will be enough to support moderate economic growth this year of around 3 percent.

"We needed the consumer to step up because that is the biggest part of the economy," said Sal Guatieri, an economist at BMO Capital Markets. "This retail sales report should go a long way toward alleviating fears that we might slip back into a recession."

The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, began growing again last summer. That indicated the recession had ended. GDP growth surged at a 5.9 percent annual rate in the October-December quarter. About two-thirds of that surge came from a rise in manufacturing to supply goods for businesses that had let their stockpiles dwindle.

Consumer spending actually slowed a bit in the fourth quarter: It grew at an annual rate of just 1.7 percent. But some analysts said that, based on the January and February retail sales, consumer spending could strengthen in the current quarter and support a GDP gain of around 3 percent this quarter.

The February retail sales report showed widespread improvement. Sales at general merchandise stores, the category that includes department stores and big discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., rose 1 percent after a 1.3 percent rise in January.

Sales at appliance stores were up 3.7 percent. Sales at hardware stores rose by 0.5 percent. Furniture sales gained 0.7 percent.

Restaurants and bars enjoyed a 0.9 percent advance, their biggest gain in nearly two years. It suggested that snowbound Americans headed out to eat to get a break from their homes.

Some analysts had suspected that the February retail sales report could offer a positive surprise, given encouraging news last week from the nation's big retail chains. The International Council of Shopping Centers had reported that sales jumped 3.7 percent in February compared with a year ago. That marked the third straight increase and showed broad strength across all corners of retailing, indicating that consumers are starting to crawl back to where they had typically shopped before the Great Recession.

Shoppers shrugged off snowstorms to visit an array of merchants, from luxury retailer Nordstrom Inc. to middlebrow Macy's Inc. to discounter Target Corp. All three chains reported solid sales increases that beat analysts expectations. Another encouraging sign the reports showed was that shoppers are becoming more willing to pay full price, instead of focusing only on deeply discounted items.

During the height of the recession, shoppers, nervous about their evaporating stock portfolios and their jobs, had fled to discounters and cheaper brands. But even though extreme frugality is starting to thaw, shoppers remain cautious.

Zain Raj, global practice leader of Euro RSCG's retail brands division, noted that customers are starting to return to some of their brands and stores, but not for everything.

"Customers are picking and choosing where they're trading up," he said.

In a separate report, Commerce said business inventories were basically unchanged in January. Total business sales rose 0.6 percent, the eighth straight monthly increase.

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AP Retail Writer Anne D'Innocenzio in New York contributed to this report.

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